Wednesday, February 7, 2007
eur/usd
the euro just made highs against the usd for the day, we are shorting 10k at 130.20 for a 30-50 pip move back
Oil stock
10:31
CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES FELL 449,000 BARRELS, U.S. EIA SAYS
I am now looking at purchasing oil stock call option contarcts I will post a seperate list of the oil stocks later for trading next week.
CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES FELL 449,000 BARRELS, U.S. EIA SAYS
I am now looking at purchasing oil stock call option contarcts I will post a seperate list of the oil stocks later for trading next week.
gold
Gold Price Drops to $653.75 an Ounce in London Afternoon Fixing
I am looking at purchasing gold stock we will be doing a seperate list of gold stock to purchase next week.
I am looking at purchasing gold stock we will be doing a seperate list of gold stock to purchase next week.
Buying mutual funds
We are about to purchase the following mutual funds:
Direxion Latin America Bull 2X Inv DXZLX 45.18%
Janus Contririan
Enterp
Vanguard REIT Idx
Real estate Securities (ACREX) - this fund is only for investors currently in the fund before January 2007.
Direxion Latin America Bull 2X Inv DXZLX 45.18%
Janus Contririan
Enterp
Vanguard REIT Idx
Real estate Securities (ACREX) - this fund is only for investors currently in the fund before January 2007.
Short eur/jpy
Euro just had a big run against jpy, short 156.97 for a big move back.
10.27am -update - the euro just ran away some more to 157.13, we have shorted another 10k lot I expect the yen to do a bull run back 30-50 pips soon this morning.
10.27am -update - the euro just ran away some more to 157.13, we have shorted another 10k lot I expect the yen to do a bull run back 30-50 pips soon this morning.
Buying Proctor & Gamble & Citibank
On a down day in the American market I shall be purchasing call options for both P&G (protor & gamble) & C (citibank). Both stocks are doing excellent and all the indicators are pointing to up trends, everything about these two companies spells success. I am looking at buying 10 contracts of at the money call options. I will be looking at possible leaps 6 month contracts + or a 5 month contract on these stocks. I will post the trades when we purchase them in the next few weeks.
Long GBP/USD
We have just longed two lots of GBP/USD at 197.10.
We longed EUR/JPY last nightat $156.45 and have made a 30 pip profit and sold our postion to enter the GBP trade.
We longed EUR/JPY last nightat $156.45 and have made a 30 pip profit and sold our postion to enter the GBP trade.
Friday, February 2, 2007
Closed EUR/USD positions
We have closed the EUR/USD position at a price of $129.50. We have made a profit of 50 pips.
In total we have made a profit of 145 pips this week. New York will be winding down and closing at 4pm EST. We will be back again on Sunday evening around 5:30pm when Asia starts trading for the week ahead.
In total we have made a profit of 145 pips this week. New York will be winding down and closing at 4pm EST. We will be back again on Sunday evening around 5:30pm when Asia starts trading for the week ahead.
Wednesday, January 31, 2007
EUR/USD Short
We have entered another trade to short EUR/USD at $13000. Our previous trade has run out of the money on a news event but we should see a pull back and make back at least 30-50 pips. We hope to profit take in the next 12-24 hours on both the old and new postion.
Closed position GBP/USD
Our position with cable closed this morning via automatic limit order at 3:30 when it hit my target of 30 pips but we actually made an extra 20 pips giving us a huge 50 pip profit.
We are currently also in the money with the EUR/USD short trade.
Overall there seems to be a bias to dollar strength mid and long term showing on the charts.
Since Sunday night we have made a whopping profit of 95 pips on our positons which are leveraged 100-1 by our broker.
We are currently also in the money with the EUR/USD short trade.
Overall there seems to be a bias to dollar strength mid and long term showing on the charts.
Since Sunday night we have made a whopping profit of 95 pips on our positons which are leveraged 100-1 by our broker.
Monday, January 29, 2007
Short GBP/USD & EUR/USD
We are looking to enter two trades with 1 lot on each. Short on GBP/USD at 196.00 and EUR/USD at 129.45. we have placed limited orders. Looking for 20-30 pip move on each.
Sunday, January 28, 2007
Buying USD
We have exited the GBP/USD (cable) trade with a 25 pip move profit.
Our USD against the yen currently now in the money. Thin trading though.
We have just entered our second trade. Long 1 lot USD/JPY.
Watch 121.80 area to topside in USD/JPY.
We have entered the first trade of the evening. We have shorted one lot of GBP/USD as the relative strength index hit 84k. The trend since Friday has been bullish to the USD. $196.14 was the price we entered the trade. We have put forward a limit order to buy back GBP at $195.88.
Our USD against the yen currently now in the money. Thin trading though.
We have just entered our second trade. Long 1 lot USD/JPY.
Watch 121.80 area to topside in USD/JPY.
We have entered the first trade of the evening. We have shorted one lot of GBP/USD as the relative strength index hit 84k. The trend since Friday has been bullish to the USD. $196.14 was the price we entered the trade. We have put forward a limit order to buy back GBP at $195.88.
Saturday, January 27, 2007
FOREX, Equities & Real Estate Investment Strategies
REAL ESTATE
This week my husband and I have been searching for foreclosures property to buy in Northen Virginia. It seems that the market in the metro DC area is a buyers market, however, foreclosures are rife and so is high debt. We have been unable to find any homes with enough equity to consider buying to then rent out. It seems rents are still low and the house prices are still considerably high and the homes being foreclosed on have no equity or worse still negative equity. It seems people have speculated and taken out risky interest only loans etc and are now in deep trouble, unable to meet payments or sell the houses which, is causing an oversupply. Sellers and banks are relutant to lower prices so the market is pretty dead right now. We will still be looking for deals and will keep you updated on our findings in the metro DC area.
We have decided to look further afield and we shall be researching the mid States and Texas for real property to invest in. We will update on out progress in the near future.
STOCKS
OIL
Is it time to buy the dip in oil -- and oil stocks? Oil prices are down about 35% from their highs of July 2006, and oil stocks have pulled back some in 2007.
ConocoPhillips (COP, news, msgs), for example, is down 10% year to date, Occidental Petroleum (OXY, news, msgs) is off 8%, and even sector stalwart ExxonMobil (XOM, news, msgs) is 1.84% lower as of Jan. 23.
The rally that has lifted the price of oil from $50 a barrel to $54.20 a barrel at the close on Jan. 23 is almost certainly temporary. Supply looks like it's going to be far enough ahead of demand to keep oil inventories high. A slowing U.S. economy will give the oil market some more breathing space.
In addition, oil company stocks face very difficult comparisons in 2006. It will be hard to grow earnings in 2007, even if oil rebounds to $60 a barrel, because oil prices were even higher in 2006. The difficulty of those comparisons is not yet fully reflected in oil stocks' prices. Even after the declines of 2007, the sector is selling at something close to fair value.
The strategy That said, I don't expect the price of a barrel of oil to drop much below the low $40s in 2007 or 2008. And I think the long-term price of oil is still headed higher. The long-term fundamentals of oil demand say that from the perspective of 2010, 2007 is likely to look like the year the oil market took a short breather.
That leaves me with a short list of oil stocks that I'd keep an eye on for purchase later in 2007, especially if the prices of oil stocks correct further.
Let me explain.
The recent rally in the price of oil is a very good example of a commodity trader's bounce. Unseasonably warm temperatures -- 60 degrees in New York in early January -- had fueled the last leg of the sell-off in oil. So when the weather forecast called for a return to colder temperatures, traders rushed to go long in anticipation of a bounce in the price of oil. They got exactly that, plus an extra bump on Jan. 23 from news stories saying that President Bush would call for doubling the size of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve to 1.5 billion barrels of oil by 2027.
More downward pressure on oil If you want to trade that bounce, though, you'd better move quickly. The data arriving from the U.S. Department of Energy over the next few weeks are almost certain to show crude inventories near four-year highs. Gasoline supplies have been climbing, too, with a rise of 3.5 million barrels in the week that ended on Jan. 12. That inventory data will likely produce enough worries about supply surpluses to cancel out the recent bounce.
Another kind of data arriving over the next few weeks will put downward pressure not on oil prices but on the price of oil stocks. Wall Street analysts have been busy cutting their earnings estimates for oil companies for the fourth quarter of 2006 and for all of 2007. Bear Stearns, for instance, has lowered its fourth-quarter earnings estimates of the major oil companies by an average of 9%. Cuts in earnings estimates range from 19% for ConocoPhillips to 18% for BP PLC (BP, news, msgs) to 14% for Occidental Petroleum to 13% for Marathon Oil (MRO, news, msgs). The investment bankers did, however, raise estimates for ExxonMobil by 11% and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS, news, msgs) by 13%.
Outlook from the oil companies But the problem won't be limited to the fourth-quarter numbers set to be reported beginning with ConocoPhillips on Jan. 24 through Chevron (CVX, news, msgs) on Feb. 2. No, investors will also get to hear about exactly how slow growth will be for most oil companies in 2007. ExxonMobil will see earnings decline by 1.12% in 2007 from 2006 levels, according to the Wall Street analyst consensus. At Chevron, the projection is for a 4.26% drop in 2007. At ConocoPhillips, a 6.89% decline. At Marathon Oil, a 15.91% decline.
It's enough to make the 6.63% earnings growth projected by Wall Street for Apache (APA, news, msgs) look positively stunning.
MORE STOCKS
Below is a list of stocks and and stock call options we are looking to buy throughout 2007 when the price is right.
Adobe Systems Incorporated ADBE American Express Company AXP AIG-AMERIC.INT.GRP Buy AIG Amgen, Inc. Buy AMGN Applied Materials, Inc. AMAT Avon Products, Inc. AVP AXA (ADR) AXA The Boeing Company BA Broadcom Corporation BRCM Caterpillar Inc. CAT Chevron Corporation CVX Cisco Systems, Inc. CSCO Citigroup Inc. C The Coca-Cola Company KO Corning Incorporated GLW Duke Energy Corporation DUK Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM FedEx Corporation FDX Genentech, Inc. DNA General Cable Corporation BGC GENERAL ELECTRIC GE Google Inc. GOOG Intel Corporation INTC International Business Machines Corp. IBM Johnson & Johnson Buy JNJ McDonald's Corporation MCD Microsoft Corporation MSFT Nokia Corporation (ADR) NOK NEWS CORP NWS Nucor Corporation NUE PACCAR Inc PCAR PepsiCo, Inc. Buy PEP Pfizer Inc. PFE PROCTER GAMBLE Buy PG QUALCOMM, Inc. QCOM Rio Tinto plc (ADR) RTP SCHLUMBERGER SLB Smithfield Foods, Inc. SFD Southwest Airlines Co. LUV Stryker Corporation SYK SYSCO Corporation SYY Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg. Co. Ltd. (ADR) TSM Texas Instruments Incorporated TXN Toyota Motor Corporation (ADR) TM Valero Energy Corporation VLO Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. WMT The Walt Disney Company DIS Walgreen Company WAG The Washington Post Co. WPO Whole Foods Market, Inc. WFMI
LONG TERM INVESTMENTS
Best Mutual Funds of 2006:
1) Dreyfus Premier Greater China A DPCAX Up 85.58%
2) Oberweis China Opportunities OBCHX Up 81.17%
3) Old Mutual Clay Finlay China Inst OMINX Up 79.54%
4) JHancock Greater China Opp A JCOAX Up 70.34%
5) Columbia Greater China A NGCAX Up 69.50%
6) ING Russia A LETRX Up 67.52%
7) Gartmore China Opportunities A GOPAX Up 67.26%
8) AllianceBernstein Great China '97 Adv GCHYX Up 65.95%
9) Matthews China MCHFX Up 64.80%
This week my husband and I have been searching for foreclosures property to buy in Northen Virginia. It seems that the market in the metro DC area is a buyers market, however, foreclosures are rife and so is high debt. We have been unable to find any homes with enough equity to consider buying to then rent out. It seems rents are still low and the house prices are still considerably high and the homes being foreclosed on have no equity or worse still negative equity. It seems people have speculated and taken out risky interest only loans etc and are now in deep trouble, unable to meet payments or sell the houses which, is causing an oversupply. Sellers and banks are relutant to lower prices so the market is pretty dead right now. We will still be looking for deals and will keep you updated on our findings in the metro DC area.
We have decided to look further afield and we shall be researching the mid States and Texas for real property to invest in. We will update on out progress in the near future.
STOCKS
OIL
Is it time to buy the dip in oil -- and oil stocks? Oil prices are down about 35% from their highs of July 2006, and oil stocks have pulled back some in 2007.
ConocoPhillips (COP, news, msgs), for example, is down 10% year to date, Occidental Petroleum (OXY, news, msgs) is off 8%, and even sector stalwart ExxonMobil (XOM, news, msgs) is 1.84% lower as of Jan. 23.
The rally that has lifted the price of oil from $50 a barrel to $54.20 a barrel at the close on Jan. 23 is almost certainly temporary. Supply looks like it's going to be far enough ahead of demand to keep oil inventories high. A slowing U.S. economy will give the oil market some more breathing space.
In addition, oil company stocks face very difficult comparisons in 2006. It will be hard to grow earnings in 2007, even if oil rebounds to $60 a barrel, because oil prices were even higher in 2006. The difficulty of those comparisons is not yet fully reflected in oil stocks' prices. Even after the declines of 2007, the sector is selling at something close to fair value.
The strategy That said, I don't expect the price of a barrel of oil to drop much below the low $40s in 2007 or 2008. And I think the long-term price of oil is still headed higher. The long-term fundamentals of oil demand say that from the perspective of 2010, 2007 is likely to look like the year the oil market took a short breather.
That leaves me with a short list of oil stocks that I'd keep an eye on for purchase later in 2007, especially if the prices of oil stocks correct further.
Let me explain.
The recent rally in the price of oil is a very good example of a commodity trader's bounce. Unseasonably warm temperatures -- 60 degrees in New York in early January -- had fueled the last leg of the sell-off in oil. So when the weather forecast called for a return to colder temperatures, traders rushed to go long in anticipation of a bounce in the price of oil. They got exactly that, plus an extra bump on Jan. 23 from news stories saying that President Bush would call for doubling the size of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve to 1.5 billion barrels of oil by 2027.
More downward pressure on oil If you want to trade that bounce, though, you'd better move quickly. The data arriving from the U.S. Department of Energy over the next few weeks are almost certain to show crude inventories near four-year highs. Gasoline supplies have been climbing, too, with a rise of 3.5 million barrels in the week that ended on Jan. 12. That inventory data will likely produce enough worries about supply surpluses to cancel out the recent bounce.
Another kind of data arriving over the next few weeks will put downward pressure not on oil prices but on the price of oil stocks. Wall Street analysts have been busy cutting their earnings estimates for oil companies for the fourth quarter of 2006 and for all of 2007. Bear Stearns, for instance, has lowered its fourth-quarter earnings estimates of the major oil companies by an average of 9%. Cuts in earnings estimates range from 19% for ConocoPhillips to 18% for BP PLC (BP, news, msgs) to 14% for Occidental Petroleum to 13% for Marathon Oil (MRO, news, msgs). The investment bankers did, however, raise estimates for ExxonMobil by 11% and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS, news, msgs) by 13%.
Outlook from the oil companies But the problem won't be limited to the fourth-quarter numbers set to be reported beginning with ConocoPhillips on Jan. 24 through Chevron (CVX, news, msgs) on Feb. 2. No, investors will also get to hear about exactly how slow growth will be for most oil companies in 2007. ExxonMobil will see earnings decline by 1.12% in 2007 from 2006 levels, according to the Wall Street analyst consensus. At Chevron, the projection is for a 4.26% drop in 2007. At ConocoPhillips, a 6.89% decline. At Marathon Oil, a 15.91% decline.
It's enough to make the 6.63% earnings growth projected by Wall Street for Apache (APA, news, msgs) look positively stunning.
MORE STOCKS
Below is a list of stocks and and stock call options we are looking to buy throughout 2007 when the price is right.
Adobe Systems Incorporated ADBE American Express Company AXP AIG-AMERIC.INT.GRP Buy AIG Amgen, Inc. Buy AMGN Applied Materials, Inc. AMAT Avon Products, Inc. AVP AXA (ADR) AXA The Boeing Company BA Broadcom Corporation BRCM Caterpillar Inc. CAT Chevron Corporation CVX Cisco Systems, Inc. CSCO Citigroup Inc. C The Coca-Cola Company KO Corning Incorporated GLW Duke Energy Corporation DUK Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM FedEx Corporation FDX Genentech, Inc. DNA General Cable Corporation BGC GENERAL ELECTRIC GE Google Inc. GOOG Intel Corporation INTC International Business Machines Corp. IBM Johnson & Johnson Buy JNJ McDonald's Corporation MCD Microsoft Corporation MSFT Nokia Corporation (ADR) NOK NEWS CORP NWS Nucor Corporation NUE PACCAR Inc PCAR PepsiCo, Inc. Buy PEP Pfizer Inc. PFE PROCTER GAMBLE Buy PG QUALCOMM, Inc. QCOM Rio Tinto plc (ADR) RTP SCHLUMBERGER SLB Smithfield Foods, Inc. SFD Southwest Airlines Co. LUV Stryker Corporation SYK SYSCO Corporation SYY Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg. Co. Ltd. (ADR) TSM Texas Instruments Incorporated TXN Toyota Motor Corporation (ADR) TM Valero Energy Corporation VLO Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. WMT The Walt Disney Company DIS Walgreen Company WAG The Washington Post Co. WPO Whole Foods Market, Inc. WFMI
LONG TERM INVESTMENTS
Best Mutual Funds of 2006:
1) Dreyfus Premier Greater China A DPCAX Up 85.58%
2) Oberweis China Opportunities OBCHX Up 81.17%
3) Old Mutual Clay Finlay China Inst OMINX Up 79.54%
4) JHancock Greater China Opp A JCOAX Up 70.34%
5) Columbia Greater China A NGCAX Up 69.50%
6) ING Russia A LETRX Up 67.52%
7) Gartmore China Opportunities A GOPAX Up 67.26%
8) AllianceBernstein Great China '97 Adv GCHYX Up 65.95%
9) Matthews China MCHFX Up 64.80%
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